Coinbase: A Deep Dive

Why Coinbase Could Be the Financial Backbone of Web3 and Deliver a 10~13x Return by 2030 — Backed by a 180-Slide Thesis.

1. I am long Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) — Having spent countless hours poring over financial statements, scrutinising management decisions, studying macroeconomic trends and modelling various market scenarios, I've developed a high-conviction thesis: Coinbase could deliver 10x growth by 2030. Coinbase’s strategic positioning at the intersection of traditional finance and the emerging cryptoeconomy, combined with its proactive approach to regulation and technological innovation, creates a credible path to a $450~$500 billion market capitalisation target by 2030.

   

2. Globally — 1 out of every 9 adults own some form of crypto asset, 1 out of every 17 adults own Bitcoin — My conviction is rooted in a simple but powerful mental model: the secular adoption of digital assets is one of the most significant capital appreciation opportunities of our era. What's particularly telling is how technical developments, institutional interest and broader market events are driving adoption. The Ethereum upgrade, Bitcoin halving, and introduction of ETFs all corresponded with periods of accelerated user growth, suggesting that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is increasingly responsive to fundamental developments rather than mere speculation. These aren't speculative trends but demonstrable shifts evidenced by the spectacular growth in global crypto ownership — from a fringe interest group to over 650 million users worldwide, representing one of the fastest adoption and capital creation curves in financial history. For Coinbase, this global growth story presents substantial international expansion opportunities beyond the American market, reinforcing the company's strategic focus on building a global footprint.

   

3. The world’s wealth is ripe for tokenisation around 1500 trillion dollars of it — The true potential lies in the progressive tokenisation of traditional asset classes. What's striking is the modest current position of digital assets - just $10 trillion, or less than 1% of global wealth. Within this, cryptocurrencies account for only $3 trillion, with Bitcoin at $1.72 trillion dominating the crypto landscape. I see Coinbase as the lynchpin in a world where digital assets, decentralised applications, and programmable money become mainstream, and where the winners will be those who combine trust, compliance, and relentless innovation. There is an extraordinary capital appreciation opportunity by riding this secular adoption. My mental model views Coinbase not simply as a trading platform, but as essential infrastructure for the inevitable tokenisation of global finance — a transformation that could see cryptocurrencies expand from today's $3.4 trillion market to a potential $40 trillion ecosystem by decade's end. Coinbase stands uniquely positioned to capture this upside as the foundational infrastructure for the onchain economy.

   

4. Macro tailwinds, improving regulatory clarity and Coinbase management’s strong execution positions the company favourably towards 10x by 2030 — My thesis also rests upon powerful macroeconomic catalysts that are already reshaping the financial landscape. We live in an era where central banks have expanded global money supply at unprecedented rates since the 2008 credit crisis, creating the perfect conditions for alternative stores of value. The data speaks volumes — Bitcoin's remarkable price movements delivering an average 150% annualised returns — historically correlate directly with expanding central bank balance sheets and plummeting interest rates. This isn't coincidental; it's causal. Add to this the quartet of — geopolitical shifts driving demand for borderless finance, the regulatory developments creating clearer frameworks, the institutional adoption accelerating through ETFs, and the financial inclusion potential in emerging markets, and we have the perfect tailwind propelling cryptocurrency adoption.

   

5. The Evolution of Coinbase: From Exchange to Onchain Platform — Coinbase’s journey began as a simple exchange, but the company has consistently anticipated and shaped the next phase of the cryptoeconomy. Today, it is much more than a trading platform: it is an integrated ecosystem serving retail, institutional, and developer customers. Coinbase’s leadership has articulated a vision where “onchain is the new online,” positioning the company as the gateway to a future in which digital ownership, decentralised identity, and programmable financial services are as ubiquitous as email or social media today. This transition from trading-centric to utility-driven use cases is already underway, as evidenced by the growing share of users engaging in staking, payments, NFTs, and DeFi through Coinbase’s expanding product suite.

   

6. What truly distinguishes Coinbase within this expanding landscape is its dual flywheel model — a self-reinforcing system of network effects meeting innovation — that competitors simply cannot replicate overnight. Externally, more users create more liquidity, attracting still more participants in a virtuous cycle of growth. Internally, Coinbase's 65/25/10 resource allocation strategy (directing 65% of operating expenses toward revenue-generating activities) enables them to continuously innovate whilst maintaining operational discipline. Most striking is their talent density — 63% of human capital dedicated to technology development — creating an unmatched capacity for product evolution. This dual advantage manifests in their revenue diversification journey, having transformed from a trading-dependent model to one where subscription and services have grown from a mere 3% to 26% of revenue in just three years. Few fintech companies have demonstrated such successful business model evolution whilst maintaining strong unit economics.

   

7. As I close this essay, here’s the essence of why I’m long Coinbase. This isn’t a meme stock punt or speculative trade — it’s a high-conviction investment grounded in operational rigour, visionary leadership, cultural focus, and strategic exposure to one of the most transformative technological shifts of our time. Coinbase has constructed a financial fortress: capital-light, cash-generative, and resilient through crypto winters, yet agile enough to capture exponential upside when markets turn. From Layer 2 infrastructure to derivatives and decentralised finance rails, it’s not just building products — it’s architecting the financial infrastructure of the 21st century. Regulatory scrutiny, far from being a weakness, has become Coinbase’s moat. Globally, its compliance-first strategy is securing licences, trust, and institutional adoption at scale. Meanwhile, its unique cultural and governance model aligns execution with long-term value creation, not short-term hype. My valuation framework runs 36 future-state scenarios, from Bitcoin-as-gold to tokenised global finance, yielding return outcomes from 0.8x to 36x—most plausibly, a 13x upside by 2030. And this isn’t blue-sky theorising. Every number, assumption and thesis has been pressure-tested and stress-modelled through the 180-slide Coinbase Deep Dive I’ve built. It’s detailed, it’s data-rich, and it’s yours to explore if you subscribe. Behind the paywall, you’ll gain access to the full deck — covering the 7 Powers, KPI walk-throughs, product flywheels, global expansion plans, scenario models, and the full investment case in visual format.

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Personal Disclaimer – Please Read Carefully - This is not a buy or sell recommendation. I am not a qualified financial advisor, and nothing in this slide should be construed as investment advice. These price bands and accumulation strategies reflect my personal approach and understanding of the market — not a prescription for anyone else. I share this only to document my own plan and the framework I choose to follow based on my risk tolerance. You must do your own research, evaluate your financial situation, and consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. Markets are volatile and unpredictable. I could be completely wrong, and the value of my investments — including the ones this plan refers to — may go to zero. That’s a risk I am personally willing to take, but you should not take it lightly. Please exercise caution and invest responsibly. I also own Coinbase shares.

If you’re serious about identifying the next generational compounding machine — where innovation, capital efficiency, and regulatory trust converge — this deck is the roadmap. Join me as I track Coinbase’s journey to becoming the financial operating system for the onchain world — and perhaps the one of the best asymmetric bet of this decade.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed above are current as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Materials referenced above will be provided for educational purposes only. None of the above will include investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or investment products.