Happy Monday and what a week.
Right.
Where to begin?
The world this week has been simultaneously conducting a geopolitical crisis, a software power grab, a boardroom pay controversy, a private markets wobble, an EU policy fight, and because apparently that was not enough, a fifteen-day war in the Middle East that has closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices to a 22-month high.
I have read more FT &Bloomberg articles this week than is medically advisable. The good news is that all of it connects and that is what this newsletter is about.
This week’s MonkStuff covers:
four short essays on the themes shaping markets right now;
a note on the European Defence trilogy Ipublished this month; and
a six-video curated playlist on the Iran conflict from White House war advisors to ancient Indian palm-leaf manuscripts. Yes, really.
Grab something warm. Let’s get into it.
THIS WEEK IN THE WORLD
Day 15 of The Iran War
On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a regional conflict now entering its third week. Iran has responded with waves of drones and ballistic missiles across nine countries. At least 1,450 civilians are reported killed in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes has been severely disrupted. Dubai Airport has been struck. A UK military base in Cyprus was hit by an Iranian drone. The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of strategic reserves (mathematically this is not even a drop in the ocean because humanity consumes 100 million barrels per day). US gas prices have hit a 22-month high.
Mojtaba Khamenei the former Supreme Leader’s son has been named his successor. He does not currently hold the clerical rank of Ayatollah, which raises a genuinely interesting constitutional question about the man now running one of the most consequential theocracies on earth. More on that below. The experts on YouTube say he is far more inclined to having the nuclear weapon than his dad. So much for regime change.
I will not pretend to have a clean take. It is too fast-moving and too serious for neat conclusions.
What I can do is point you to interesting material I have found covering multiple perspectives via a curated reading and viewing list. You make your own take.
THIS WEEK’S ESSAYS
Four Short Essays. One Thread.
Four pieces published this week on Substack. They look like separate topics. They are not. The connecting thread running through all of them: intelligence and software are becoming abundant and cheap. Physical things remain scarce. Infrastructure, liquidity, atoms. Every one of these stories is, at its core, about that shift.
Essay 1
Microsoft and Anthropic announced a deal this week to integrate Anthropic’s AI agent Cowork into Microsoft’s Copilot platform. It was reported as a partnership. I think it is something more interesting: a slow-motion battle for the most valuable real estate in the coming decade of AI. The workplace itself. Copilot has only 3 per cent of Microsoft’s Office users paying for it. That is not a triumph. That is a company calling for reinforcements.
Meanwhile, Anthropic’s annualised revenue has doubled from $9 billion to $19 billion in three months. And Microsoft is currently riding the Elizabeth Line looking for a new London headquarters between Paddington and Canary Wharf, somewhere north of 200,000 square feet. Fitting, really. They are looking for a home at precisely the moment they are inviting a rival to share it.
The essay asks: who is actually inside whose ecosystem? The Trojan horse is already inside the gates.
Essay 2
The $692 Million Confession
Google was built on the most elegant business model in corporate history.
Google gave Sundar Pichai a pay package worth up to $692 million this week. In the same breath, Alphabet announced it is lining up a 100-year sterling bond. A century. As in: we fully expect to be a going concern in 2126. Bold.
What caught my attention is that $350 million of Pichai’s incentives are tied not to search or cloud, but to Waymo and Wing. A self-driving car service and a drone delivery business. Physical infrastructure. Atoms. The old Google was built on abundance: search costs almost nothing to replicate. The new Google is quietly betting on scarcity. That pivot, hidden in a pay document, tells you more about where Alphabet thinks the world is going than any earnings call.
The essay argues: sometimes the most revealing document in a company’s filing is not the income statement. It is the CEO’s pay packet.
Essay 3
The Gate Is Open. That Is the Problem.
BlackRock manages $12 trillion in assets. (Deep dive coming soon).
BlackRock sent a letter to investors in its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund this week. The letter said: we received $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests. We are paying out $620 million. For the rest, the gate is closed. BlackRock’s shares fell 5.1 per cent on the day. I opened my first position the previous day. Ouch! That hurt! KKR, Blue Owl and Ares all dropped more than 5 per cent.
This is the first significant crack in the everything-is-fine private markets narrative. Private credit was sold to retail investors as the sophisticated asset class they had previously been locked out of. High returns, quarterly liquidity. What was never emphasised is that the liquidity was always conditional. True liquidity is genuinely scarce. This week, that became visible.
The essay asks: did you read the small print? The gate was always in the documents. Most people just did not read that far.
Essay 4
Brussels Is Solving the Wrong Problem
The European Commission is preparing a tech sovereignty package.
The European Commission is preparing a tech sovereignty package. A plan to reduce Europe’s dependence on American cloud, software, and AI.
The problem: European businesses are quietly telling Brussels it cannot be done quickly, cheaply, or without competitive damage. Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Thyssenkrupp, and a major unnamed carmaker all said essentially the same thing: we depend on Microsoft and Google because nothing comparable exists in Europe, and switching now would hurt us.
They are right. But the deeper point is that Europe does not need to out-hyperscale Silicon Valley. It needs to out-apply it. Europe’s real competitive advantage was always atoms, not algorithms. Manufacturing, defence hardware, energy infrastructure, industrial automation. And in the AI era, that is precisely where value is moving.
The essay argues: Brussels is solving the wrong problem. Europe did not miss the AI revolution. It is sitting directly in the path of the most important part of it.
The European Defence Trilogy
My three-part series that goes considerably deeper on the macro thesis underpinning everything above. It covers the WisdomTree European Defence UCITS ETF and all 32 of its constituents.
PART ONE
The Genghis Khan bit. Where did the current world order come from, who built it, and why is Europe now rearming for the first time in a generation? Context first. Without it the rest does not make sense. If you have ever thought geopolitics was someone else’s problem, this is your entry point. It will not stay that way for long.
PART TWO
The speculative fiction piece. All 32 ETF constituents appear in a single dramatic narrative set on the AI-enabled battlefield of the near future. Rheinmetall, Thales, Leonardo, BAE and the rest. Each company’s technology translated into a scene. It is, I think, the most unusual thing I have written. Whether that is a compliment is entirely up to you.
PART THREE
The Goldman Sachs bit. A full financial analysis of all 32 ETF constituents. Operating margins, free cash flow yields, EV multiples, BUY / HOLD / MONITOR ratings, and five structural investment themes. If Part One is why and Part Two is what, Part Three is the how much and should I. Written for retail investors, not for fund managers though I suspect a few of those have found their way here.
CURATED READING
Iran: Read Both Sides
Before the playlist, a quick reading list. Two minutes of context on each side of the argument. The war looks very different depending on which news sources you trust.
THE WESTERN / US-ISRAEL PERSPECTIVE
→ CNN: What we know
→ UK Parliament House of Commons Library: Full briefing on the strikes
→ Wikipedia: 2026 Iran War
THE IRAN / REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
→ Al Jazeera: Iran War
→ Al Jazeera: Death toll and casualties live tracker
THE SLIGHT DETOUR: WHO IS AN AYATOLLAH AND CAN I BECOME ONE?
Not unless you are a Shia Male Muslim.
Mojtaba Khamenei the new Supreme Leader does not currently hold the rank of Ayatollah. Which raises the question: what does it take to earn one? The answer is at least 30 years and a long arduous journey. There is no ceremony, no formal conferral, no graduation day. You study for decades at a seminary in Qom (Iran) or Najaf (Iraq). You master Islamic jurisprudence, theology and philosophy, write books, attract students, and gather followers. Eventually, if enough respected clerics and ordinary believers treat you as an Ayatollah, you become one. It is less like becoming a bishop and more like becoming a respected elder in an unwritten tradition. The title literally means Sign of God. Khamenei’s father was elevated quickly and controversially after the revolution. His son is starting without the title at all.
→ Slate: How do you become an Ayatollah?
→ Business Standard: The Shia clerical system explained
IRAN: AN INVESTOR’S DILEMMA
Six Perspectives. One Conflict.
Six videos that approach the Iran war from six completely different angles. They do not agree with each other. That is the point. The Carnegie video is the institutional lens. Simon Dixon is the financial-flows lens. Professor Jiang is the historical-patterns lens. McCormack and Modad is the power-structures lens. Robert Pape is the simulation lens. Craig Hamilton-Parker is, well, the dark arts lens.
THE ESTABLISHMENT LENS
Who’s Running Iran? — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1hr 3min)
Recorded on 5 March. A week after Khamenei was killed. This is Jon Bateman interviewing Karim Sadjadpour, I believe one of the most credible western Iran analysts alive. The question is exactly what it says: with the Supreme Leader gone after 37 years, who is actually in charge?
Sadjadpour describes the assassination as the political equivalent of a bunker buster. The conversation covers internal regime dynamics, the Revolutionary Guards, the possibility of popular uprising, and whether any exile opposition figures are credible alternatives.
Start here. Sober, well-sourced, and built on decades of serious research.
THE FINANCIAL FLOWS LENS
This Iran War Is the Global Reset — Simon Dixon — BitcoinHardTalk (3hr 7min)
Simon Dixon, Bitcoin investor and macro thinker, argues the conflict is not a conventional war but a pre-scripted geopolitical and financial transition, driven by transnational capital rather than national interest. His thesis: Iran gets absorbed into China’s orbit, Israel into the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the whole thing is a managed reset towards a multipolar world order.
Dixon is sharp on capital markets and genuinely provocative on geopolitics. This is the follow-the-money lens. Three hours long. Worth watching with one eyebrow firmly raised. Best for investors trying to understand who benefits economically and how energy markets, dollar hegemony and Bitcoin intersect with the conflict.
THE HISTORICAL PATTERNS LENS
Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War — Predictive History — Professor Jiang Xueqin (45min)
In May 2024, Professor Jiang made three predictions to his students: Trump would win the election, the US would go to war with Iran, and the US would lose. The first two have already come true.
Using game theory and historical pattern analysis, he argues the US faces a catastrophic war of attrition. Iran has been preparing for this specific conflict for twenty years. In their eschatology, this is literally a war against the Great Satan. He draws parallels to Athens in Sicily, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Wars where tactical precision masked strategic collapse.
Critics note his analysis relies on selective historical analogies. He now has 3.8 million views on this video. His third prediction, US defeat remains to be manifested. Watch it anyway.
THE POWER STRUCTURES LENS
The Elite Oligarchy Profiting from the Middle East War — Peter McCormack & Firas Modad (1hr 35min)
Firas Modad argues the real consequences of the Iran war are economic rather than military. Spreading through energy markets, shipping lanes, and commodity prices far beyond the battlefield. The conversation examines the role of donor networks, corporate interests, and what Modad describes as an oligarchy that disregards citizens of the Middle East and the West alike.
McCormack is a good interviewer. He pushes back and keeps Modad accountable. Most uncomfortable watch on the list, in a productive way. Key timestamps: Energy Shock Risk at 12 minutes, Iran Endgame Scenarios at 20 minutes, Energy Decides It at 54 minutes.
THE SIMULATION LENS
The Iran War Expert: I Simulated the Iran War for 20 Years — Diary of a CEO — Steven Bartlett & Robert Pape (1hr 29min)
Professor Robert Pape has advised every White House on military strategy since 2001 and has run a war simulation on Iran at the end of every strategy class for twenty years. He is the man who has rehearsed this moment more times than anyone alive.
His central warning: the US is falling into a smart bomb escalation trap, where tactical precision is producing strategic failure. He identifies three stages of the conflict and puts a 75 per cent probability on the US escalating to Stage 3. Boots on the ground. He also raises the nuclear question nobody wants to answer: Iran had the material for 16 nuclear bombs, and the US does not know where that material is now.
Pape notes that assassinating Khamenei who was personally opposed to nuclear weapons may have cleared the path for a more aggressive successor who is not.
The most credible, most alarming strategic assessment on this list. Do not watch this one late at night.
THE DARK ARTS LENS
Iran War Predictions: Regime Change, Oil Crisis, Japan’s Future — Craig Hamilton-Parker — Coffee with Craig (39min)
Right. And now for something completely different. Craig Hamilton-Parker is a British psychic, author of 31 books on New Age topics, and known to the popular press as the Prophet of Doom and the new Nostradamus. He predicted Brexit, Trump’s 2016 victory, Covid, and the Queen’s death. He also predicted the post-Brexit economy would thrive with a strong pound. So, as ever, a mixed scorecard.
For those who believe in the ancient arts of astrology, palm reading, and 2,000-year-old Indian palm-leaf manuscripts, Hamilton-Parker draws on the Nadi Astrology texts to interpret current and future events. His prediction for Iran: very targeted strikes, rapid escalation, then a sudden stop, with no boots on the ground, leaving the outcome to the Iranian people. Which, so far, is closer to what has happened than some of the generals managed.
He additionally foresees a new Iran with freedom and rights for women, a catastrophic gas cloud over Japan in August, a major cyber event disrupting crypto and AI markets, and the possibility of a Trump third term. The man is not running short of material. Watch with the same energy you bring to reading your horoscope on a Monday morning. Lightly, with one eye open, and the slight uncomfortable awareness that sometimes these things are oddly on the money.
Finally, It’s Not Only About Oil
Naphtha, Sulphuric Acid and Caustic Soda are three important raw materials impacted by this war. . This can ripple across industries such as automobiles, consumer goods, construction, and clothing, pushing up costs and creating supply shortages. Read Ashna’s essay.
That’s it for this week.
A war, four essays, a trilogy, six videos, a brief education in Shia clerical hierarchy, and a psychic who may or may not know something about Japan. Not a bad week’s reading, all things considered.
The world is moving fast. The scarcity thesis: physical things hold value as digital things become cheap keeps proving itself in unexpected places. I will keep pointing them out.
As always: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing here is financial advice. Do your own research. And if you are sitting in a private credit fund with quarterly redemption rights, do re-read the small print.
Satishan